Live @ Keeneland – Friday, October 14

By Jude T. Feld

1st Race) New Zealand-bred XPECTATION showed a liking for Polytrack in her two starts at Arlington Park. She has a tremendous edge in speed figures and is dropping to the lowest level of her career for this race. It all adds up to a top effort.

3rd Race) Regally-bred MEDIA FIRE hails from the powerful Juddmonte Stable. She was away slowly in her debut but finished well. Stretching out to a mile and an eighth and switching to turf should go a long way to help the daughter of super-sire Bernardini find the winners’ circle.

4th Race) Trainer Wayne Catalano is a master of placing his horses where they can win. He saddles TOASTMASTER, who posted an excellent workout at Keeneland on October 5, prepping for this race. He gives the call to leading rider Julien Leparoux, with whom he has won at a 42% clip since the beginning of 2010. Trainer Wesley Ward enters his CLIFFORD in this race off two good five-furlong works in Lexington. His first-timers have been winning 22% of the time.

6th Race) Ten of the fillies here have never raced before, so there are a lot of question marks in this race. Experience is always welcome in races of this type. SACRISTY ran a good second as the even money favorite in her debut last month at Arlington Park. She has returned to work extremely well at Keeneland and should be tough to beat unless there is a very talented first-time starter in this field.

8th Race) STORMY GOING is a very quick gelding, but he worked like his tail was on fire on October 3 at Keeneland, stopping clocker Tom Bridges’ watch in :58 seconds flat. He has never run on anything but grass, but it seems as if he will appreciate the Polytack surface. If a pace duel develops, it would benefit COAL FIRED, who has put in some big finishes in all of his sprint races.

9th Race) Turf sprints are among the hardest races to handicap as the break from the gate is all-important and dictates the trip your selection will get. QUEBRADA SHINER has done very well in this type of race, winning four of nine and finishing in-the-money in seven of those. Drawing the outside also helps her cause as regardless of her break, she should get a nice trip.

10th Race) FLOATING ALONE exits a race where the first two finishers have come back to win. This is called a “key race” in racing parlance and indicates a very strong field for the level. California trainer Bob Hess, Jr. has been spending his springs and falls at Keeneland the last few years with some success. He puts his long-time friend and go-to rider Kent Desormeaux on his charge indicating “all systems go.”

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